From global practice to national strategy: horizon scanning tools for healthcare transformation in Russia

Abstract

Horizon scanning (HS) in healthcare is a strategic framework designed to identify and evaluate emerging medical technologies with the potential to significantly influence health systems. In response to rapid scientific and technological advancements, and the increasing demand for long-term forecasting, HS has been institutionalized in many settings, allowing for its integration into national healthcare planning and policy development. International experience demonstrates that the systematic application of HS contributes significantly to evidence-based decision-making in healthcare. By enabling the timely identification and evaluation of emerging technologies, HS helps mitigate potential risks, supports proactive policy responses, and enhances the overall efficiency and responsiveness of healthcare systems.

IIn the Russian Federation, some HS activities are underway; however, they are not yet institutionalized, do not involve all key stakeholders, and are not supported by advanced technological platforms such as artificial intelligence or big data analytics. This limits the country’s capacity for strategic foresight and long-term innovation planning in healthcare. The adoption of an integrated HS framework could substantially improve system efficiency by facilitating timely access to high-impact innovations, enhancing resource allocation, and informing evidence-based health and pharmaceutical policy. Strengthening collaboration with international organizations and BRICS partners could support the development of common methodological approaches, promote shared technology assessment priorities, and reinforce collective readiness for emerging health challenges. The use of advanced analytical tools would further enable the integration of HS into national decision-making and contribute to building a resilient, proactive system for anticipating technological change.